Howard County Blog

A Blog on what is going on in Howard County

Monday, October 09, 2006

Why Ken is in Trouble

This is something I started looking at after I saw the precinct results, but it has taken some time to run the numbers and type up.

One of the big things that jumped out at me when I was looking through the precinct data was that the Dunbar vote combined with the undervote (ballots where Democratic voters chose not to vote in the County Executive race) combine to be a very significant 30% of Democrats that voted against Ken Ulman. If that isn't a warning sign to Ken that he needs to give assurances to his Democratic base that he is hearing their concerns I do not know what is. More interesting is to see which precincts were trying to send Ken a signal that he has to come out strong and address their concerns. I decided to examine the precentage of anti-Ulman votes within Ken's council district by precinct.

Precint 2-13










2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total1514422.6%

Precinct 2-14












2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total1793616.7%


Precinct 2-20










2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman
% Anti-Ulman
Total10925
18.7%


These first three precinct are the Dorsey Search neighborhood where Ken grew up and his parents still live. The anti-Ulman precentage in the teens is about the max range I expected for the primary. Ken was going to be the nominee and Harry Dunbar spent virtually no money, had virtually no volunteers, and other than show up at forums I saw no evidence that he was actively campaigning (door-to-door, lit drops, mailers, phone banking, ads, etc.). Harry was never a credible choice to face a well financed Republican who was and is campaigning agressively. Frankly, I thought Harry would be lucky to break 10% because -- on top of not actively campaigning -- he made himself into such a joke.


So now let's work our way through other precincts:


Precinct 5-2











2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total2166823.9%


Precinct 5-3










2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total38216329.9%

OK, this is where alarm bells should be ringing. Just shy of 30% of Democratic voters that chose to vote in the primary in this precinct also chose NOT to vote for Ken. This, particularly at this level of votes, is an active choice. So what area is in this precinct: As we see from the map above that this is the Downtown Lakefront, the Vantage Point neighborhood of Town Center, the apartment next to the Central Library, the east side of Running Brook, Ten Mills Road, and Columbia Road south of Ten Mills Road. Thus some of the area most impacted by Downtown Columbia redevelopment.

Precinct 5-4











2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total31110425.1%

Here we have a quarter of Democratic voters that chose to vote in the primary also choosing not to vote for Ken. This area is the Warfield Triangle neighborhood of Town Center and the inner side of Green Mountain Circle and Faulkner Ridge Circle.


Precinct 5-5











2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total2658323.9%

Precinct 5-6











2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total1155532.4%

The previous two precincts are interesting because they are the two non-Columbia precincts in the district. Ken beat Mary Kay four years ago in both these districts with the latter precinct being Ken's fifth best precinct in 2002. Boy times seem to have changed in this latter precinct.

Precinct 5-7










2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total47010518.3%

This is Ken's best non-River Hill/non-Dorsey Search precinct and the only one that the anti-Ulman vote is under 20%. It includes Hobbit's Glen, the north side of Clary's Forest, and the west side of Ceder Lane/Harpers Farm Road. Outside of River Hill this is probably the farthest Columbia section of the district from Downtown.

Precinct 5-8











2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total3569821.6%

This is the outside of the Green Mountain Circle and Faulkner Ridge Circle and the south side of Hesperus Drive. Ken actually does better here than the rest of Wilde Lake which is interesting, but the anti-Ken vote is still over 20%.

Precinct 5-9










2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total25610328.7%

Precinct 5-10










2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total3326015.3%

Ken's base in River Hill in this precinct and Precinct 5-22 are still Ken's best precincts. It was Ken's landslide in 5-22 four years ago that put Ken over the top of Mary Kay.

Precinct 5-12










2006
Ulman
Anti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total2909123.9%


Precinct 5-13










2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total1385628.9%


Precinct 5-14










2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total1617732.4%

Interestingly the west side of Running Brook and the east side of Hesperus is tied with Precinct 5-6 for his worst precincts in county council district 4.

Precinct 5-15











2006

UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total
36510121.7%

This precinct includes the Banneker neighborhood of Town Center, but it is a very small part of a large precinct that takes in a good chunk of Hickory Ridge. This was one of Ken's better precincts in 2002 and he still does slightly better here than any of the neighboring precincts.

Precinct 5-16










2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total1173824.5

The area of Columbia Road between Ten Mills Road and Rt 108 has just shy of a quarter of voters choosing not to vote for Ken.

Precinct 5-17











2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total2099030.1%


Precinct 5-18










2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total1514924.5%


Precinct 5-21











2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total2188628.3%


Precinct 5-22












2006
UlmanAnti-Ulman% Anti-Ulman
Total4545611%

River Hill still is Ken's strongest precincts.

So what do we learn from all of this. No precincts match up well with village or neighborhood lines, but Ken does poorly in most of the precincts have a significant chunck of their voters living in the Town Center and Wilde Lake areas. In fact, only 3 precincts in the non-River Hill/non-Dorsey Search Columbia parts of the district have an anti-Ulman precentage under 23.9%. The fact that the anti-Ulman numbers are also strong in 5-09, 5-13, 5-17, and 5-21 shows that the concern is pretty broad in parts of Columbia not immediately next to downtown. I live on the east side of Columbia and I hear concerns about the downtown planning from a lot of others on the east side.

I take these numbers as a very bad sign for Ken. I worked on Ken's campaign in 2002 and walked large chunks of these precincts for him. There is no way to spin these numbers other than that Ken is in touble with his base. There is a great need for Ken to solidify his base by coming out strong and giving voters specific guarantees about what any redevelopment under his administration will or will not do. At this point the community has spoken at public meetings, CA elections, and the primaries and every time they have expressed concern with the downtown plans. Ken needs to show that he has heard them. This staying aloof, running a front porch campaign (some also call it Rose Garden campaign) will not work and Ken will lose. If he does lose he will have no one to blame but himself. I privately told Ken the issue of this election would be development as we walked out together after the final day of charrette week and that I was hearing a lot of concern in the community.

This election will come down to this: Will Ken solidify his base? Will Chris Merdon convince enough hard core Columbia Democrats that he is better on growth and committed enough on public services to not undermine our great schools and public safety services by fiscally irresponsibly cutting taxes?

This race has always been Ken's to lose, because of the generic numbers of the county, but so far he is on the way to doing just that. Howard County voters will swing vote on the issues and if you don't get out in the community and listen, learn, and respond to voters concerns you will lose elections.

35 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kudos to you. What a great analysis. I must admit I just truly dislike Ken Ulman. I have never met him and maybe that isn't fair but just about everything I have read involving him in the last 4 years just made me cringe. I am a registered independent and have never voted along party lines. I have done my homework and well let me tell you, Chris Merdon is the only choice for county executive. He is a very good man with the best intentions and the only one with ideas and platforms. I hope your analysis is correct. I do not want Ken Ulman in such an important position. He isn't ready and may never be.

12:48 PM  
Anonymous jsmill said...

It will be interesting to see who wins the County Exec race. Both candidates have strengths and flaws. Evan's analysis is very thorough but I wonder how the races for statewide and Congressional offices will impact the local elections. It could be that the people who voted in the primary are not a representative sample of people who vote in November. Let's face it -- neither Ulman nor Merdon had serious opposition. It's entirely possible that most voters just ignored the primary. People leaning Democratic may have seen no difference between Mfume and Cardin (other than their race); both are very liberal. In the 3rd Congressional District, the top candidates are all liberals (regretably, the best man did not win). And in the 13th Legislative District, is there really any serious differences in the voting records of Turner, Pendergast, Guzzone, and Quinter. Quinter, unfortunately, simply lost the numbers game. If there is a large turnout, Ulman might ride in on the coattails of the other Democratic candidates.

4:39 PM  
Blogger seldom seen smith said...

Man have you bought the Republican line hook, line and sinker. Your analysis of the numbers and the situation is shaky at best. Aren’t you the same guy who thought Nina Basu was going to come in the top three? Even Nina Basu didn’t think that. Let me see if I can dispel the stuff you’re putting forward.

Under votes – you talk about under votes as indicators which they rarely are except in much higher numbers. Some small percentage are certainly protests but it’s a much smaller number then those of us politically inclined tend to admit, mostly its folks who don’t vote for the county elections ESPECIALLY in primaries. With that said let’s analyze the under votes. Across the county, the under vote for County Council was 22% in the Democratic primary and 15% in the Republican. In the exec race the Democratic under vote was 10% and in the Republican 15% meaning Chris got the same as the County Council candidates and Ken/Harry got less than half. In District 4 (which you seem to think holds the key to Ken’s “struggle”) the exec and Council under vote were both 7%. Just for good measure, Liz Bobo, the most beloved politician in West Columbia had a 14% under vote this year – up 3 points from last primary. Maybe it’s an indication of dissatisfaction. Then again maybe not.

You including under votes with Dunbar votes as “anti-Ken” votes may make some common sense but simply don’t hold up in election common sense. History just doesn’t play that out. Let’s take as a perfect example: Merdon’s first race for County Council in 98. Merdon was running against a guy name McCoy who was an underdog against the better financed, better connected, and all around better candidate, Merdon. I remember it pretty well and I remember it being thought of as, though not the biggest gimmee of the year, pretty close (at least outside the political bourgeoisies). In the primary Chris took 68% (1980) to McCoy’s 32% (929) with an under vote of 16% (567). That means (by your standards) a troubling 43% of the vote was NOT MERDON. The result in the general was Merdon taking 59% of the vote. His percentage was nearly as good as incumbent Gray in District 2 and better than incumbent Lorsung in District 4. I could do a ton of these (and will if you dare me) but I think you get the idea.

The Feldmark Factor – you didn’t bring it up but considering your new tendency to take on the Republicans job I figure it’s only a matter of time, so I want to address the idea that Sigaty beating Feldmark is somehow a bad sign for Ken. Again, going to the numbers, it seems to me to indicate that all it’s a sign of is someone (Sigaty) who has built support while being on the ballot 4 times now in the last 4 years. Not as a perennial candidate like Pierpont but one who actually won two of the three fairly easily (coming in first in all but 2 of the precincts in District 4) and in her one loss, to Ken of course, took 13 of 22 precincts. She then, this year, predictably, won her fourth. Truthfully the surprise is that Feldmark did as well as he did (54%-45%) making it the closest County Council race in either primary (much closer then the expected nail bitter of Fox v Livesay).

Finally – the growth vote.

Everyone seems to forget that slow/no growth candidates ALWAYS pull some percentage – a reliable set of voters that rarely if ever make a majority. Though the last contested Democratic primary for executive - in 1998 – saw Susan Gray (who, like Harry ran solely on the slow growth message) beat the party favorite and well known Sue-Ellen Hantman – now a district court judge – for the right to get obliterated by fairly reliably pro-growth Chuck Ecker. Even in Montgomery County where growth is a MUCH bigger issue, Doug Duncan, who is the most predictably pro-growth executive in the state, is beloved as an Exec. and continually won by large margins.

The real issue is not whether or not Ken stops running a front porch/rose garden campaign which is not only not the issue but so patently untrue as to be laughable as Ulman is frickin everywhere. The real issue is whether or not Chris can successfully woo that small percentage of slow/no growth voters and add them up to a slim victory. The truth is though, that historically slow growth voters tend to be pretty finicky and I just think that Merdons new found salvation in slow growth has got to ring hollow after 8 years, not to mention a Merdon sign on damn near every piece of property owned by a developer that screwed or tried to screw a community (Mangione, Merritt, Williamsburg).

On every issue besides growth – Ulman, it seems clear to me, has the advantage with Howard County voters. So I do think that if slow growth voters do ANYTHING but vote for Chris (stay home, vote for Wallis) Ken wins.

Let me just end by saying this – your post, and a few others, seem to me like classic Democratic cannibalism. The Republicans continually react to things their candidates say and do by praising it like it came from the Almighty himself no matter how offbeat (middle school sports? Are they serious?) and Democrats are FAR more critical of our own – we love to hate on Democrats. If he does lose Evan, I encourage you to look in the mirror for reasons.

7:27 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon #1 may have done their homework, but if the fruits of their homework are only "I dislike" this candidate and that candidate is a "good man with the best intentions and the only one with ideas and platforms", then their dog may as well have eaten their homework. How about a little more substance like *why* you disklike a candidate and what ideas and platforms the other candidate has?

10:24 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anonymous #2, visit www.merdon.org and you can read about his platforms. my carpal tunnel may flare up with everything I would have to type for you.
as for ken ulman, 2 top reasons:
1) my husband is a bartendar on main street and the smoking crowd is hitting the trolley stop and dimitri's. paying the mortgage is tough right now. restaurant owners should have the right to allow smoking or not.
2) correct me if i am wrong but didn't he try to get rid of produce stands on the side of the road.
small business owners should be very afraid of him.

10:55 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What about the resume-padding? That should be reason enough to vote for anyone but Ken Ulman.

11:40 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Resume padding? Ulman?

8:49 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unsubstantiated allegations? Anonymous commenters?

9:25 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

1. Chris Merdon's gotta be loving you now! Actually, I'm a bit surprised by the oversimplification in your analysis. Assuming that Ken Ulman's campaign is in trouble because 20 something percent of the votes cast in the primary went to Harry Dunbar is jumping the gun a bit.

First of all, if you put the most disliked person in the county up against the most popular person in the county, the most unpopular person would still get 10 to 15 percent of the vote. Check any textbook on voting behavior.

Second, this is a Democratic primary in a very diverse community. Given the choice between a person of color and a white male, some of us Dems will choose the person of color. Those same persons, who tend to be liberal, won't be voteing Republican until Hell Freezes over, (which given the Republicans' unwillingness to take action against global warming, might be sooner than previously expected).

Moreover, this argument ignores other factors which sugguest ulman is winning (including polling and the Dem's voter registration advantage, and a toxic environment for the REPs).

That being said, I personally wish Ken would do a better job of (2) defining and communicating his (and Merdon's) postions on growth and development issues and (2) switch the subject to Education, where Merdon has a lot of bad votes (and suggestions) to explain.

-Steve Fine

9:30 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Isn't it established that Ulman's job titles were embellishments? I thought someone offered pretty good support (unrefuted by anyone with the Ulman campaign)

10:03 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Two words- Town Center will be Ulman's undoing. When voters really think about who they want to be their next county executive there really is just one answer!

MERDON

11:21 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Isn't it established that Ulman's job titles were embellishments? I thought someone offered pretty good support (unrefuted by anyone with the Ulman campaign)

Wow. Just wow.

Bloggers and commenters start asking questions with little basis in fact. A few spend a couple minutes "investigating" and then a failure by the campaign to respond to spurrious remarks results in the assumption that said remarks are inevitably true.

I heard Chris Merdon hates cats, and since he hasn't denied it, it must be true.

11:10 AM  
Anonymous nmill said...

I have attended debates and what I find interesting as a new comer to Howard County and the political scene is how the democrats are so divided. I am quite certain that Courtney Watson and Mary Kay Sigaty will both be voting for Chris Merdon. I saw Ulman walk up to Liz Bobo the other night and he looked scared of her and she looked at him with disgust. Well disgust is harsh but it wasn't good. Chris Merdon is a lot more respected than Ken Ulman. GO MERDON!!!!!!!!!!!

1:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Bloggers and commenters start asking questions with little basis in fact. A few spend a couple minutes "investigating" and then a failure by the campaign to respond to spurrious remarks results in the assumption that said remarks are inevitably true."

But there is no "Secretary to the Cabinet" nor is there a "Director of Board of Public Works" Check the state website for crying out loud!

If I am a secretary for a state, that does not make me "Secretary of State"

The blogs may have something on this one. Do we need to discuss all of the news stories first broken by blogs?

12:32 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Um, from the very man who's curiousity started it all...

I do have a document that shows that the Glendening administration actually did publish the title, “Director” relative to his liaison to the Board of Public Works for Ken Ulman’s predecessor, William F. Goddard, III.


Link

Please stop lying to yourself and to whoever is still reading this thread.

9:44 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Forget the resume mumbo jumbo, let's get to something that really matters, who is better looking?
My vote is for Merdon. Ken is too short.

11:05 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Crow anyone?

I'll be waiting for that apology.

11:53 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What is "Secretary of the Cabinet" anyway? That one is still floating out there. Anyone? Bueller?

I am an "executive" in a "county" so I can call myself "County Executive"

Nevermind the fact that he is 32, and all of this "experience" with the state must have occurred between law school and 2002.

* Ulman graduated high school in 1995
* Ulman graduated college in 1999
* (assuming he continued through full time) Ulman graduated law school in 2002

So these state "jobs" were full-time jobs? If so, when? How long did he work there?

Or were they in fact internships?

So many questions with Slick Kenny...

I've been on a plane, that doesn't make me a pilot...

8:34 PM  
Anonymous nmill said...

i think ulman is smug and has a short man complex so it pains me to type this but i think he graduated in 1992 from high school and 1996 from college. oh man, did i just try to defend him...i won't be able to sleep tonight.

9:08 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fact check re: Ken Ulman:

1) He graduated from CHS in 1992
2) He graduated from Maryland in 1996
3) He went to law school at night, while working for the state of Maryland
4) He only worked for the state of Maryland during the Glendening administration
5) His father was a major contributor to the Glendening administration
6) His father was also Chairman of the Maryland Racing Board
7) Ken Ulman began working for his father's law firm in August 2001 (according to the Maryland Daily Record 8/4/01).
8) According to the Daily Record, Ulman's title was "the special assistant for community and intergovernmental relations in the office of the Maryland Secretary of State"
9) The article mentions that Ken was hired even though he had plans to run for the County Council in 2002 - see also:
http://www.zoominfo.com/people/Ulman_Ken_7246592.aspx

Based on these facts, why would a law firm hire someone who was planning on leaving the firm within 18 months?

How much did Ken Ulman's father help him during this process?

How is a "special assistant" job the same as a "secretary" job?

I agree - too many questions for me

9:41 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well now, maybe an observation you didn't think of? Could this undervote represent the Wallis vote He runs a school in Columbia after all? Just curious...


ANON99

10:04 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ulman apparently led Clinton's 1996 campaign in Wyoming, one of the bluest states in the country. Clinton didn't even campaign there and only got 37 percent of the vote. I can see why he'd be tempted to puff up his resume - the real experience is not very impressive!

11:17 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Evan, your blog is great. The precinct analysis re Ken is excellent and useful.Your concern and courage in speaking out demonstrates your integrity, and is not the first example of it.
I agree that Ken is in trouble and it is of his own making. That does not mean Chris Merdon would be the better County Exec. but he sure is the better politican. Development is the main issue this election cycle and for me, Downtown Columbia development is the biggest. Specifics in terms of the deciding elements of development, density, zoning, affordable housing, LEED requirements, building heights, infrastructure, traffic, phasing etc. etc. etc. need to be heard.
Are they knowledgeable about new urbanism? How about form based zoning? So far these are the underpinnings (I am not unbiased, I consider them development fads) for Downtown Plan, so what are the candidate positions on these? Has anyone got their answers? Has anyone access to latest poll data? Post it with source?
I agree that Democrats seem to relish a circular firing squad rather than unity. But I have to challenge the idea of Liz Bobo radiating disgust or Chris Merdon afraid of her. Get a grip.
Height requirements are for buildings. Youth is not a fatal disease, lack of experience can be, lack of core values beyond ambition certainly are.
Cheers, fun talking to y'all.
Mary Pivar

9:40 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Evan, your blog is great. The precinct analysis re Ken is excellent and useful.Your concern and courage in speaking out demonstrates your integrity, and is not the first example of it.
I agree that Ken is in trouble and it is of his own making. That does not mean Chris Merdon would be the better County Exec. but he sure is the better politican. Development is the main issue this election cycle and for me, Downtown Columbia development is the biggest. Specifics in terms of the deciding elements of development, density, zoning, affordable housing, LEED requirements, building heights, infrastructure, traffic, phasing etc. etc. etc. need to be heard.
Are they knowledgeable about new urbanism? How about form based zoning? So far these are the underpinnings (I am not unbiased, I consider them development fads) for Downtown Plan, so what are the candidate positions on these? Has anyone got their answers? Has anyone access to latest poll data? Post it with source?
I agree that Democrats seem to relish a circular firing squad rather than unity. But I have to challenge the idea of Liz Bobo radiating disgust or Chris Merdon afraid of her. Get a grip.
Height requirements are for buildings. Youth is not a fatal disease, lack of experience can be, lack of core values beyond ambition certainly are.
Cheers, fun talking to y'all.
Mary Pivar

9:40 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wyoming is a red state, not a blue one. Either way it is not very impressive to "head" a Democratic presidential campaign there!

11:41 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It sure does look like Ken fabricated or exaggerated several items on his resume. My favorite one is "Secretary of the Cabinet"

Now he is apparently created an anonymous website with distortions about Chris Merdon.

http://hocomd.wordpress.com/2006/10/13/desperation/

Getting drunk at age 18? Excusable
Getting jobs through family connections? OK - happens a lot
Getting paid for a job you didn't do so you can campaign full-time (while not reporting it as a campaign contribution)? Bad.
Exaggerating the jobs you did get on your resume? Not a good idea
Creating an anonymous website about your opponent with more distortions? Not good either.

Put them all together and you get someone who should not be elected to any office. Period.

6:53 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ulman's anonymous smear website of Merdon mentions "ethics" as a category. This from the guy with the padded resume!

7:15 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ulman won and the County is worse off. This guy is all flash and no substance. He won because of who he knows, not what he knows.

11:15 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've known this tool since high school. Was cocky and arrogant then, still is. Never cared about teamwork or honesty.

11:10 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

i knew him in high school also, he is a socialist/statist that doesn't care about anyone except his socialist progressive cronies ie. Gov. Owe Malley , Sen. Mikulski and any other dyed in the wool big government anti-freedom, anti-capitialism, anti-free speech, and pro-intrusion, pr- big spending and taxiation without represenation. he needs to go. Expect US

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